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By eah
#77452
Laserminer wrote:Except it doesn't.
I still think it does. For instance, picking 980 with the numbers 970-990 being within range gives probability 21/1000. Picking 20 with numbers 10-30 within range gives probability 21/1000. Same probability for your number being picked, but you get more credits if 970-990 is picked.
By Laserminer
#77462
Laserminer wrote:
eah2119 wrote: picking a higher number gives you a better chance of winning more rc.

Except it doesn't.
I keep my case: Consider picking 500 versus picking 800. According to what you said, picking 800 "gives you a better chance of winning more rc" than picking 500. There are more values between 1 and 1000 that are closer to 500 than there are to 800 (1 to 649 is 649 numbers that are closer to 500, and 650 to 1000 is 350 numbers that are closer to 800). Therefore you have a better chance of being closest to a random number between 1 and 1000 by picking 500. Therefore you have a better chance of winning any RC by picking 500, and a smaller chance of winning any RC by picking 800.

^^^^ That is my best guess, but I am not a mathematician. If someone is it would be helpful if they could answer the question.
By Laserminer
#77506
You know what eah I think we are disagreeing because we're talking about 2 different things.

What you're saying is correct, if one was playing where they only won if they guessed right on the number.

My stance applies to this activity, where you can win if you are closest, not needing to be right on the number.
By eah
#77568
It seems this is actually a really great probability experiment. :D

Ok I'm gonna keep arguing cause I find this interesting. Consider this:
The numbers 40 and 101 have already been picked. By picking 71, the numbers 55 to 86 are within range. That's 32 numbers, a 3.2% chance of winning. The numbers 880 and 901 have already been picked. By picking 890, the numbers 885 to 896 are within range. That's 12 numbers, a 1.2% chance of winning.

However, you said that you win the amount of credits that you guessed. So, by the winning number being 55 through 86, you win 71 rc. By the winning number being 885 through 896, you win 890 rc.
So, you either have a 3.2% chance of winning 71 rc or a 1.2% chance of winning 885 rc. Your possible winnings are dependent on how many numbers are within range AND the value of the number you pick.

I would continue explaining the significance of the number 707, but I don't think the majority of readers prefer to hurt their brain.
Last edited by eah on Sat Feb 18, 2012 12:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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